CS2 Major Simulator: PGL Singapore 2026

How to use the Major simulator

• Pick'Em board: fill the same slots as the in-game Pick'Em for each Swiss stage (two 3-0, six advance, two 0-3): tap a team, then a slot. "Fill with model picks" builds a suggestion, and "Check my Pick'Em" plays the stage 2,000 times to show how often your picks would get 5 or more right, plus the chance of each single pick and your weakest one.
• Pick winners: click a team in each match. When every match of a round has a winner, the next round is paired automatically. Change an earlier pick and the later rounds re-pair; picks for match-ups that still exist are kept.
• Pick favourites / Simulate randomly: fills the rest of the stage with the model favourite in every match, or with a random result weighted by the model's win chances.
• Stages: the 8 teams that reach three wins in Stage 1 join the 8 teams invited straight to Stage 2, and the same happens for Stage 3. The top 8 of Stage 3 go to the playoffs.
• Pick'Em odds: runs the rest of the stage 2,000 times from your current picks and shows each team's chance to go 3-0, 3-1/3-2 or 0-3, plus a suggested Pick'Em.
• Who wins? plays the whole Major 3,000 times and shows each team's chance to reach the playoffs and lift the trophy.
• Share: your picks are stored in the page link, so you can copy it and send your bracket to friends.

How the Swiss pairings work

The simulator follows the rules in Valve's Major Supplemental Rulebook, the document every Major organiser has to use:

• Round 1: seed 1 plays seed 9, 2 plays 10, through 8 vs 16. Stage 1 seeds come from the global Valve Regional Standings (VRS). In Stages 2 and 3 the invited teams are seeds 1-8 and the qualifiers from the previous stage are seeds 9-16.
• Rounds 2 and 3: inside each record group (1-0, 0-1, then 2-0, 1-1, 0-2) the highest seed plays the lowest seed it has not already faced.
• Rounds 4 and 5: the groups of six (2-1 and 1-2, then 2-2) are paired with Valve's priority table: 1v6, 2v5, 3v4 if possible, otherwise the first row of the table that avoids a rematch.
• Seeding during a stage: record first, then the Difficulty Score (Buchholz: opponents' wins minus their losses), then the seed the team started the stage with.
• Best of one or three: any match where a team can advance or be eliminated is a best of three, everything else is a best of one. The rulebook makes playoff matches best of three, seeded 1v8 and 4v5 on one side, 2v7 and 3v6 on the other. PGL plays the grand final as a best of five and adds a best-of-three third-place decider, both included in the simulator.

How the win chances are calculated

The percentages come from VRS points, the same points Valve uses to invite and seed teams. Valve's VRS model turns a points gap into an expected match win rate with a chess-style formula. Valve's own check of that model shows it overrates favourites, so the simulator uses a gentler version (800 points of difference instead of 400 for each 10-to-1 step) and treats it as the chance of winning one map. A 100-point gap gives about 57% on a single map and about 61% in a best of three; series odds are worked out from the map odds.

The model knows nothing about form, map pools, stand-ins or jet lag. Use it as a starting point for your picks, not as a betting tip.

Pick'Em tips

At the Cologne Major 2026 the Swiss Pick'Em asked for two 3-0 teams, six teams that advance with 3-1 or 3-2, and two 0-3 teams; five correct picks out of ten completed a stage. Check Valve's in-game Pick'Em for the Singapore rules once it opens. A few things the simulator makes easy to see:

• A 3-0 needs three wins in a row, two of them best of ones, so even a favourite misses it often. Open the Pick'Em odds: the best 3-0 candidates are not always the top seeds, because the draw matters.
• Advance picks only score if the team finishes 3-1 or 3-2: a team you pick to advance that goes 3-0 scores nothing, and so does a 3-0 pick that drops a game. Put the likeliest 3-0 teams in the 3-0 slots and solid teams that will probably drop a game in the advance slots, which is how the model builds its suggestion.
• For 0-3, look at the 0-3 column rather than just the lowest VRS points: a weak team that meets another weak team in round 2 or 3 can win once and escape.

The model's ready-made picks for every stage are on the Singapore Major Pick'Em page.

Everything about the event itself (dates, how the 32 teams are invited, the regional split) is on our PGL Singapore Major 2026 guide.

Between matches: the Major is also when sticker and souvenir prices move. See CS2 stickers or plan a trade up with live prices.

Frequently asked questions