CS2 Knife Odds Calculator

Every standard CS2 case has the same 0.26% chance to drop a knife or gloves. This calculator turns that number into something you can use: your chance over a whole session of openings, and what it costs.

How the knife odds are calculated

Each case is an independent roll. The chance of getting no knife in one case is 99.74%, so the chance of getting at least one knife in N cases is 1 − 0.9974^N. That is why the chance grows quickly at first and then slowly: it never reaches 100%.

Even after 385 cases, the "1 in 385" number, the chance is only about 63%. You need 267 cases for a 50% chance, 885 for 90% and 1,769 for 99%.

What a knife costs to unbox

With a key at $2.49 and a case at about $1, one opening costs around $3.50. At that price, a 50% chance at a knife costs about $934 and a 90% chance about $3,098. The knife you hit is random and is often one of the cheaper ones in the case, which is why unboxing loses money on average.

Before you open, check which knives a case can drop and what they sell for. Our best cases to open guide compares the knife pools, and every case page links to live knife prices for that case.

Try it without spending money

• Open any case for free in the CS2 case simulator, which uses the real odds.
• Check live prices for every knife in the game with CS2 knife prices.
• Want a knife for less? A knife trade-up turns five Covert skins into a knife; price it first in the knife trade-up calculator.

Knife odds myths

• "I'm due a knife." No. After 500 empty cases, the next case still has a 0.26% chance.
• "Some cases have better knife odds." Standard cases share the same rarity odds. What changes is which knives are in the pool and how much they are worth.
• "Opening at a certain time helps." There is no evidence for this. Every roll is independent.

For the full rarity table (Mil-Spec to Covert), see CS2 case odds explained.

Frequently asked questions