CS2 Case Odds Explained
Every standard CS2 case uses the same published odds. Here they are, what the 0.26% knife chance really means, and what unboxing a knife costs on average.
Official CS2 case odds
Valve has disclosed the odds for its weapon cases, and they are the same for every standard case:
| Rarity | Chance per case | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 1.25 |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 6 |
| Classified | 3.20% | 31 |
| Covert | 0.64% | 156 |
| Knife / gloves | 0.26% | 385 |
On top of that, roughly one in ten items from a case comes out as StatTrak.
Knife and glove odds
The rare special item drops 0.26% of the time, about 1 in 385 cases. That number covers every knife or glove in the case's pool. The odds of one specific knife in one specific finish are much lower, because the pool is split across many items. See what's in each case.
What it costs on average
At 1-in-385, the expected spend to unbox any knife is 385 × (case price + key price). Even with cheap cases, that is usually far more than buying a budget knife directly. The knife trade up is the alternative: it always gives a knife or gloves from the chosen pool, for the price of five Covert skins.
Compare the cost of unboxing, buying and trading up with live prices in the knife trade up calculator.
Common myths
- "Cases are due to drop a knife." Every opening is independent. 384 misses don't make the next one more likely.
- "Some cases have better knife odds." The rarity odds are the same; what differs is which knives are in the pool and what they're worth.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of getting a knife in CS2?
About 0.26% per case, roughly 1 in 385. That covers any knife or gloves in the case's pool.
What are the CS2 case odds?
Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and rare special items (knives/gloves) 0.26%.
Do some cases have better knife odds?
No, standard cases share the same rarity odds. The pools and their value differ.